December 30, 2009
Dead Man Running This time last year Gordon Brown was a dead man walking. As we approach 2010 he has risen to at least purgatory but most of the media continues to write his obituary. Despite the utter lack of freshness in the New Labour movement, and the presence of a relatively charming opposition leader in David Cameron, the dour Mr. Brown continues to fight what most see as inevitable. With an election coming at some point between March and May of 2010 Gordon Brown may pull off the unthinkable and somehow find a way to win. In the past year Mr. Brown has been written off so many times that you would not fault an outside observer for wondering if he was still the leader of Great Britain. As recently as April he was twenty points behind Mr. Cameron in the polls and was almost forced from his job in June. In the aftermath of Labour’s disastrous performance in the European elections in June there were daily calls for his head from within his own party. Brown was able to sidestep these problems only to find himself mired in the expenses scandal that has poisoned British politics for the better part of a year. Despite all of this the latest polls show him just nine points behind Mr. Cameron nationally. This seems surreal but people must begin to accept the real possibility that Gordon may live to fight another day. Gordon Brown is not Tony Blair. He is the Abbot to Blair’s Costello or perhaps more aptly the Cassio to Blair’s Othello. A useful comparison for Canadians is that Mr. Brown is Paul Martin and Mr. Blair is Jean Chretien. Blair and Brown were rivals in the mid 1990’s for the leadership of the Labour party, just as Martin and Chretien were rivals for the leadership of the Liberal party earlier in the decade. In both cases the better politician won and then quickly offered his rival control of his nation’s economy. In the ensuing years both Paul Martin and Gordon Brown contributed a great deal to the political success of their respective bosses through their competent overseeing of economic growth. When the time came for the two of them to assume the throne they both faltered and were haunted by mistakes made by their former bosses. Mr. Martin was defeated in 2004 by a resurgent Conservative movement led by Stephen Harper and it is virtually written in the history books already that Mr. Brown will be defeated by a resurgent Conservative movement led by David Cameron in 2010. The comparison is in fact striking and I congratulate myself for identifying it. As for that Costello, Othello stuff I should let you all know that I am a rapper at heart. (Just one who knows his Shakespeare) So can Mr. Brown do what his Canadian counterpart was unable to do and turn the tides against the Conservatives? Maybe, but at this point it remains unlikely. Since Tony Blair defeated John Major in the 1997 election and sealed the lid on the Thatcher Era, Labour has been in power for twelve consecutive years. This is an incredibly long time for one party to be in power in virtually any stable democracy outside of Japan. For Brown to pull off the impossible, he will still need to have the stars align for him in several ways. First off Mr. Brown will need to go back to the Scottish street fighter he was at the beginning of his political career. His recent populism in limiting banker’s bonuses has shown misguided glimpses of this but he will need a lot more to win. Secondly Mr. Brown will need to pull to within five points in the polls leading up to the election. If he can do this he might be able to rely on Labour’s massive majority to deny Mr. Cameron the ability to form a government. Finally he will need Mr. Cameron to slip up, not hugely, but enough to make a difference. This is far from outside the realm of possibility when it comes to David Cameron and his ego. So there you have it, unlikely but not impossible, despite what most of the British and International press would have you believe. Regardless of all prognostications though it will take some miracles yet to keep this Labour man employed.

Dead Man Running

This time last year Gordon Brown was a dead man walking. As we approach 2010 he has risen to at least purgatory but most of the media continues to write his obituary. Despite the utter lack of freshness in the New Labour movement, and the presence of a relatively charming opposition leader in David Cameron, the dour Mr. Brown continues to fight what most see as inevitable. With an election coming at some point between March and May of 2010 Gordon Brown may pull off the unthinkable and somehow find a way to win.

In the past year Mr. Brown has been written off so many times that you would not fault an outside observer for wondering if he was still the leader of Great Britain. As recently as April he was twenty points behind Mr. Cameron in the polls and was almost forced from his job in June. In the aftermath of Labour’s disastrous performance in the European elections in June there were daily calls for his head from within his own party. Brown was able to sidestep these problems only to find himself mired in the expenses scandal that has poisoned British politics for the better part of a year. Despite all of this the latest polls show him just nine points behind Mr. Cameron nationally. This seems surreal but people must begin to accept the real possibility that Gordon may live to fight another day.

Gordon Brown is not Tony Blair. He is the Abbot to Blair’s Costello or perhaps more aptly the Cassio to Blair’s Othello. A useful comparison for Canadians is that Mr. Brown is Paul Martin and Mr. Blair is Jean Chretien. Blair and Brown were rivals in the mid 1990’s for the leadership of the Labour party, just as Martin and Chretien were rivals for the leadership of the Liberal party earlier in the decade. In both cases the better politician won and then quickly offered his rival control of his nation’s economy. In the ensuing years both Paul Martin and Gordon Brown contributed a great deal to the political success of their respective bosses through their competent overseeing of economic growth. When the time came for the two of them to assume the throne they both faltered and were haunted by mistakes made by their former bosses. Mr. Martin was defeated in 2004 by a resurgent Conservative movement led by Stephen Harper and it is virtually written in the history books already that Mr. Brown will be defeated by a resurgent Conservative movement led by David Cameron in 2010. The comparison is in fact striking and I congratulate myself for identifying it. As for that Costello, Othello stuff I should let you all know that I am a rapper at heart. (Just one who knows his Shakespeare)

So can Mr. Brown do what his Canadian counterpart was unable to do and turn the tides against the Conservatives? Maybe, but at this point it remains unlikely. Since Tony Blair defeated John Major in the 1997 election and sealed the lid on the Thatcher Era, Labour has been in power for twelve consecutive years. This is an incredibly long time for one party to be in power in virtually any stable democracy outside of Japan. For Brown to pull off the impossible, he will still need to have the stars align for him in several ways.

First off Mr. Brown will need to go back to the Scottish street fighter he was at the beginning of his political career. His recent populism in limiting banker’s bonuses has shown misguided glimpses of this but he will need a lot more to win. Secondly Mr. Brown will need to pull to within five points in the polls leading up to the election. If he can do this he might be able to rely on Labour’s massive majority to deny Mr. Cameron the ability to form a government. Finally he will need Mr. Cameron to slip up, not hugely, but enough to make a difference. This is far from outside the realm of possibility when it comes to David Cameron and his ego. So there you have it, unlikely but not impossible, despite what most of the British and International press would have you believe. Regardless of all prognostications though it will take some miracles yet to keep this Labour man employed.

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